Observations on Theology, Culture and the Hosier family

Monday, 19 April 2010

PREDICTION TIME

OK, time to nail my colors to the mast...

It is 2.5 weeks to election day, and Clegmania is doing very strange things to the opinion polls, so here is my prediction for the result: Labour will win, with a small, but workable, majority.

Why? Because it smells to me so much like 1992 when a deeply unpopular and sleaze-mired government managed to stay in power because the electoral math meant that the opposition couldn't turn them over. Labours majority is still so substantial that it would need an unprecedented swing to go the Tories way, and there is a built in bias to the current constituencies in favor of Labour (ours is a complicated system, but basically its stacked so Labout need fewer votes per seat than the Conservatives or LibDems do). The swing is not going to go nearly far enough for Cameron to get in, especially if the LibDems do pick up a load of extra votes, so I'm calling it for another term for Labour.

So, the interesting question becomes, when Cameron loses, will he retain leadership of the Conservative Party, or will they again turn on one another and spit him out?

1 comment:

Steve Smith said...

I tend to agree with this. The failure of Cameron is that he has not been able to (contra 1997) turn the govt unpopularity to the opposition's advantage. Post election, he will be under pressure from the bottom and top of the party to explain why he was unable to achieve this. However, I doubt there will be immediate calls for his resignation because there is no one to replace him. There will be calls from the right of the party to return to the right because of the apparent failure of more middle leaning policies informed by Ian Duncan Smith.