OK, time to nail my colors to the mast...
It is 2.5 weeks to election day, and Clegmania is doing very strange things to the opinion polls, so here is my prediction for the result: Labour will win, with a small, but workable, majority.
Why? Because it smells to me so much like 1992 when a deeply unpopular and sleaze-mired government managed to stay in power because the electoral math meant that the opposition couldn't turn them over. Labours majority is still so substantial that it would need an unprecedented swing to go the Tories way, and there is a built in bias to the current constituencies in favor of Labour (ours is a complicated system, but basically its stacked so Labout need fewer votes per seat than the Conservatives or LibDems do). The swing is not going to go nearly far enough for Cameron to get in, especially if the LibDems do pick up a load of extra votes, so I'm calling it for another term for Labour.
So, the interesting question becomes, when Cameron loses, will he retain leadership of the Conservative Party, or will they again turn on one another and spit him out?
A Theology of Maleness - [image: A Theology of Maleness primary image] Here's my video.
2 weeks ago